India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable outlook for the Indian education sector for FY22. The key reason for this view is the expected stability in enrolments across higher educational institutions for the year. Also, the commencement of 170 new institutions in FY21 supports the stable outlook. Furthermore, 29% of India’s population falls in the age group of 0 to 14 years (Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation), which reflects a great opportunity for the sector.

Despite the pandemic, India was able to retain above 9,600 institutions and 3.13 million intakes in FY21, mainly supported by digital learning. Ind-Ra believes the dependence on online classes would remain in FY22 as well, even though institutions are expected to reopen for physical classes in the next academic year (2021-22).

Education remains a strategic priority for the government of India. The union government has approved the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, making way for large-scale, transformational reforms in both school and higher education sectors. In the Union Budget 2021-22, the government has allocated Rs 5,487.30 million to the Department of School Education and Literacy and Rs 3,835 million to the Department of Higher Education. For FY22, Ind-Ra has also maintained a Stable Outlook on most of the rated educational institutions in its portfolio. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, majority (nearly 71%) of Ind-Ra-rated educational institutions, mainly managing colleges and universities, reported steady enrolments in FY21 backed by their strong demand profile and regionally good market position,. At the same time, institutions only managing schools (about 16% of Ind-Ra rated institutions) and located mainly in rural areas reported a fall in enrolment rates in FY21 due to the pandemic. This coupled with rising discounts on tuition fee eroded the revenue collection of these institutions in FY21. However, enrolments in these schools are likely to increase in FY22 with the resumptions of regular physical classes.

In general, the liquidity profile of educational institutions in India is weak due to their high debt service commitments and operational expenditures which worsened in FY21 due to mismatches in cash inflow and outflow on account of COVID-19. Ind-Ra expects the liquidity profile to remain the same in FY22.